The Fuse

BNEF Sharply Revises EV Forecast Upward

by Paul Ruiz | @pmruiz | June 23, 2017

BNEF projects 60 million global EV sales in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) segment in 2040, accounting for 53 percent of the total globally.

At an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. earlier this week, lead researchers Seb Henbest and Elena Giannakopoulou presented Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s (BNEF) New Energy Outlook 2017. BNEF’s analysts say batteries—alongside emergent sources of grid flexibility—will become increasingly important for renewable power generation, and grow their reach through 2040, placing new demands on local power generation. NEO 2017 projects electric vehicles (EVs) to account for 50 percent of total vehicle sales in 2040, a significant increase from roughly one percent of global sales today, and a roughly 15 percentage point upward revision from BNEF’s 2016 forecast.

BNEF

Lithium-ion battery costs are projected to fall 73 percent to $73 per kilowatt hour in 2040, making EVs cost competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles and fueling higher uptake rates in many parts of the world. BNEF, which will publish its more detailed EV forecast next month, projects 60 million global EV sales in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) segment in 2040, accounting for 53 percent of the total globally. New EVs will put pressure on electricity demand, which forecasters say will grow to more than 400 terawatt-hours in the United States, but a significant increase in sales will propel greater diversity in the transportation sector.

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