The Fuse

Petropolitics

OPEC/MENA

Wild Cards Threaten OPEC Deal Extension

In combination with robust U.S. shale oil production, the wild cards of Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq could force OPEC and its allies to go back to the drawing board. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Saudi Arabia Oil Supply: Disruption Scenarios and Potential Economic Impacts

A recent study [indicates that] for every million barrels of oil taken off the market, the world oil price will rise by about $5 per barrel, given a baseline oil price of around $60 per barrel. This suggests…a large-scale disruption in Saudi Arabia could cause an upswing of 50 percent or more, and that a catastrophic regional disruption could result in the doubling of oil prices.” A 100 percent increase in oil prices could reduce U.S. GDP by around 5 percent. Read More

OPEC/MENA

OPEC Sows Confusion in Global Oil Market With Its Production Cut

Despite constant chatter of rebalancing, oil prices have been weakening, and OPEC has itself to blame for causing market uncertainty and instability. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Is OPEC Gaming Exports to Move U.S. Inventories?

OPEC’s strategy centers around restricting supply to the Atlantic basin since inventory data in the U.S. is the most timely and visible in the world. From February to early April, U.S. imports from Saudi Arabia have plummeted by about 462,000 b/d. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Venezuela’s Economic Upheaval Alters Oil Trade Flows

The economic calamity in Venezuela is having a ripple effect on the oil market, altering long-standing trade flows and hollowing out the country’s oil-producing assets. Read More

OPEC/MENA

The Hydrocarbon Pivot of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates 

Similar to other Gulf producers, UAE and Qatar are making efforts toward the twin goals of reducing expensive fuel subsidy programs and diversifying exports through larger natural gas volumes. Read More

Oil and the Economy

Why Chevron's Decision to Spend $37 Billion on the Tengiz Megaproject Makes Sense

The approval of the $37 billion expansion is the largest final investment decision across the entire global oil industry this year, and ranks in the top three in recent years. Read More

Petropolitics

For Europe, Even Modest Supplies of U.S. LNG Will Transform Relationship with Gazprom

Russia has the means and determination to hold onto its gas market in Europe, but in doing so, will be forced to give up much of its leverage over pricing and the way contracts are written. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Oil Sits at Center of Next President’s Foreign Policy Challenges

With international events happening at a quick pace and relationships with allies and enemies in flux, the next president will have a long list of foreign policy challenges, with major oil-producing countries as top concerns. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Panama Papers Perfectly Exemplify Exploitation of Wealth and Power in Petro States

The Panama Papers are another reminder of the extreme wealth, corruption, and opaqueness that is common to leadership in so many oil producing countries. Read More

Petropolitics

Amid Talks of Production “Freeze,” Russian Oil Already Facing Decline

Russia's oil industry has hit a post-Soviet record, but it lacks access to the investment capital it needs to maintain output. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Capitol Crude: The Hazards of Islamic State Oil

Cross Post: I joined Platts reporters Herman Wang and Brian Scheid to discuss ISIS oil operations, revenues and exports; we also touch on bigger questions like whether or not international prices impact the ISIS market. Read More