The Fuse

Petropolitics

OPEC/MENA

OPEC Raises Expectations Despite Divisions

An extension is virtually guaranteed but today’s overwhelming consensus masks real divisions, complications and misgivings. Read More

OPEC/MENA

OPEC’s Roller Coaster Ride

As OPEC and its non-OPEC allies gather in Vienna this week, it will mark the three-year anniversary of the cartel’s pivotal decision to produce all out and allow prices to fall sharply. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Market Uncertainty Ahead as OPEC Looks to Extend Production Cut Through 2018

OPEC will attempt to manage perceptions in both the physical and financial markets—but given its track record, it will not likely produce stability and certainty, but instead ambiguity and volatility. Read More

Economics

Bullish Speculative Bets Near Their Limit as Market Waits on OPEC

The direction of hedge funds bets in the coming weeks and months will depend on a number of factors, including the U.S. rig count, the strength of the dollar, the Fed’s decision on whether to raise interest rates, and of course OPEC. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Geopolitical Risk and Lost Production

When producers that are inherently prone to conflict and resource nationalism lose supply, output will most likely not return to previous levels. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Venezuela’s Crisis Deepens After Default

The risks of more oil production losses have intensified as the financial screws on Caracas continue to tighten. Deteriorating conditions in Venezuela are occurring at the same time OPEC is looking to extend its production cut and tensions throughout the Middle East are rising. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Why Haven’t More Petro-states Failed?

In the aftermath of the 2014 price fall, producer countries have had to reevaluate policy and economic strategy while contending with a persistent glut that may dampen prices for some time, further undermine their budgets, and possibly cause domestic strife. Read More

OPEC/MENA

Death by a Thousand Cuts

Markets are shrugging off OPEC headlines, with prices weakening and hedge funds liquidating long positions. The cartel may be missing the mark on its stated longer-term goal of stabilizing the market and preventing a catastrophic correction. Read More

Petropolitics

Russia Ramps Up Arctic Ambitions Despite Low Prices

The Arctic’s strategic importance to Moscow helps explain why Russia is moving ahead so aggressively in the region while the economic case for doing so is questionable Read More

OPEC/MENA

Venezuela’s Economic Upheaval Alters Oil Trade Flows

The economic calamity in Venezuela is having a ripple effect on the oil market, altering long-standing trade flows and hollowing out the country’s oil-producing assets. Read More

OPEC/MENA

A Kingpin’s View of OPEC Compliance

Between now and OPEC's next meeting in May, much more must be done in order to make sure the cuts are fairly distributed, slackers come around, and non-OPEC members stick to the deal. Read More