Two major forecasters see a sharp penetration of EVs in the next couple of decades. Although the outlook for EVs and the transportation sector is improving quickly, oil demand is likely to continue to grow.
As the world is on the cusp of a transportation revolution, one that can spur true fuel diversity and reduce oil dependence, it is important for the auto and battery industries to manage expectations and position capital investments in the right places so that their fate does not go the same way as the nuclear sector.
BNEF projects electric vehicles to account for 50 percent of total vehicle sales in 2040, a roughly 15 percentage point upward revision from its 2016 forecast.
The companies that succeed will do what smart new startups have always done: Focus on delighting customers and disrupting markets using creative combinations of technology, software, and business models.
Researchers and even some automakers are already racing to determine what roles EV batteries can play in their second lives—and what kind of business model can support used batteries once they are retired.