While growth in shale has garnered a lot of attention, overlooked is the fact that Canada and Brazil are expected to add a combined 2 mbd over the next five years.
Approval from the federal government of two major pipelines, rising oil prices, and a the potential shift on Keystone XL mean that after two years of contraction, optimism has finally returned to Canada's oil patch.
Although the carbon tax proposed by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely cause more stress for the country's oil industry, it may lead to approval for much-need oil pipelines.
Crude export deals so far have been “opportunistic” and isolated in nature and have gone to a wide variety of buyers. Cargoes will continue to trickle out, but a gusher won’t happen unless domestic production rebounds significantly.
As Canadian wildfires have failed to cause lasting damage to tar sands extraction facilities, oil markets remain calm despite the size of the disruption.
The outlook appears bleak for Canada’s oil industry, with prices for some crude grades in the country trading for just $15 per barrel. The outlook is so bad that some companies are shutting in production.
Low oil prices are having a large impact on currencies of major oil-producing countries. Weaker currencies can bring positive developments for the economies, but there are a number of downsides. Here's how a number of big producers have been affected.
Despite its potential, the Arctic will not likely see large-scale development in the near-to-medium term, if ever. The region’s remote location, lack of infrastructure, harsh conditions, and most importantly, the high-cost of drilling will continue to undermine Arctic oil drilling.
Despite the bleak picture for producers, oil sands output in Alberta is still expected to grow by .8 mbd between now and 2020.
Flagging investment, price and infrastructure challenges, and the coming election are contributing to a grim outlook for Canada's oil industry.