China hasn't included crude oil on a list of tarifed products, but that does not mean that the energy trade will emerge from the escalating trade war unscathed. Already, the trade spat has disrupted the flow of energy between the two countries.
Together, Australia, Qatar, and the U.S. will account for 60 percent of global LNG capacity by 2023. Meanwhile, China will dominate demand growth going forward, importing increasing volumes of LNG to replace coal-fired electricity and coal-burning furnaces.
Unrestricted access to Arctic sea routes will further link China’s developing economy with some of the world's most advanced markets, including the United States, Canada, and Norway.
The mix of support for domestic industrial policy and local infighting poses a threat to international automakers in China's market.
Rising imports from China are helping to reduce the large surplus of supply, and LNG prices are rising again, marking an end to a several-year downturn in the market.
Beijing’s motivations for establishing a crude oil benchmark are complex, with economic, domestic, and geopolitical considerations taken into account. China’s drive for the contract to flourish will be persistent, giving it a greater chance of long-term success.
A favorable political environment is needed to support electric vehicle policies, and countries must be wealthy enough to afford subsidies. EV policy also needs to be clear and sustained to give consumers and automakers certainty.
Despite the rise in EV sales in China, long-term trends of a rising population and a growing middle class will increase the country’s appetite for petroleum.
SAFE's Matt Piotrowski talks to Platts Capitol Crude about China’s motivations behind its crude futures contract, what its chances are for success, and why it matters for U.S. consumers and American energy security.
The petrodollar system isn’t going to be turned upside down overnight, but China’s rising status will continue to disrupt the status quo, sending a powerful message that the country seeks to consolidate its strength as an economic superpower.