Despite continued rapid growth in U.S. shale, the global oil market could see price spikes and increased volatility at the beginning of next decade.
Critics of the EIA's long-term projections can cherry-pick through the different scenarios to justify almost any outlook that suits their bias.
Although the EIA’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) has had a mixed record with its long-term projections, it’s important as a basis for analysis and discussion about the future of the oil market and energy security in general.
Forecasting oil markets has always been complicated and fraught with risk. Now is no different, with so much price volatility and global uncertainties.