for Goldman Sachs
If fundamentals weaken and oil market sentiment shifts, a sharp price correction is likely once investors liquidate their long positions.
Under the border-adjustment tax, U.S. oil would be exempted from taxes if it is exported abroad, making it much more competitive. The tax, however, will have difficulty passing in Congress since it would also likely raise pump prices.
U.S. independent shale companies are starting to step up their spending plans, eyeing a swift return to the shale patch as oil prices rise. Many have revised their capex upward, added rigs, and hedged production forward.
OPEC’s talk about an agreement on a production freeze in late September has dominated headlines, scaring financial investors with short positions. But more important than the rhetoric about capping production is the possibility of more supply from the cartel returning to the market.
As Canadian wildfires have failed to cause lasting damage to tar sands extraction facilities, oil markets remain calm despite the size of the disruption.
A number of supportive elements should keep a floor under prices, while the market will be capped by the ongoing oversupply. For the time being, oil markets are set to remain volatile and range-bound with many competing factors pushing prices in both directions.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has released their latest research note on the current state of the oil market, with price projections and an assessment of four possible paths forward as the oil market seeks to rebalance. Here are some of the top observations from the report.
The industry is producing more oil than the world is consuming, and the extra crude is going into storage. Since the onset of the current market downturn in mid-2014, storage tanks around the world have been mopping up the excess oil, putting downward pressure on prices.
A good bit of the linkage between oil prices and the Dow is the result of general market sentiment, psychology, and knee-jerk reactions. At the same time, however, the fallout from the pain in the energy sector is touching large segments of the economy, including many major U.S. corporations with exposure to oil and gas.
The oil markets have had a crazy beginning to 2016. Prices have plummeted to the lowest levels in 11 years, and it’s hard to identify anything likely to turn the market around in the near future.