Between Iran, Libya and Venezuela, the seeds of a major disruption to the oil market have already been sown. A significant outage in one could push the market into deficit.
Tehran has limited options to dodge sanctions, most of which are a redux of its 2012 strategy.
Even though India’s vision of an all-electric future is bumping up against reality, the country is moving in the right direction to diversify its car fleet as population grows and the demand for oil rises faster than in any other market.
While India is making a concerted effort to implement reform in its transportation sector, it is far behind other countries in putting EVs on the road. Despite the government's best intentions, India's oil demand should double by 2040.
With China's economy slowing, India has stepped up as the world's main center of oil demand growth. This means its thirst for crude oil imports will continue to grow.
“It is easy for consumers to be lulled into complacency by ample stocks and low prices today, but they should heed the writing on the wall."
China is passing the baton to India as the global driver of energy demand growth, according to the International Energy Agency.