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Tehran has limited options to dodge sanctions, most of which are a redux of its 2012 strategy.
Compensating for supply shortfalls from Venezuela, Libya, and Iran may prove a challenging task for OPEC in the months to come.
Iran and Russia's scaled-down agreement faces long odds, but isn't dead yet.
The oil market could be sorely tested in the second half of the year and into 2019, unless demand slows, OPEC outages are less than expected, or non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil produce higher than forecast.
OPEC fudges the details. Oil prices rose on Friday in reaction to OPEC's decision to increase output during the second half of the year. Analysts argue that the cartel's actions will not be sufficient to meet the markets' needs.
Market watchers are not sure Iran’s participation in an OPEC agreement is necessary. The Saudis are determined to increase supply, with or without Iran’s agreement.
Global oil markets are in danger of seeing a large supply deficit in the second half of 2018, increasing the need for more OPEC supply.
Given the group’s discord, it’s unclear if OPEC+ will sufficiently handle the current complex market situation, which is experiencing a number of fast-moving events, such as lost supply in Venezuela, Libya, and other producer nations.
The goal of the United States is to gradually restrict Iranian crude exports over time. The toughest sanctions on Iran’s oil trade, energy sector, and Central Bank will be re-imposed on November 5.