Between Iran, Libya and Venezuela, the seeds of a major disruption to the oil market have already been sown. A significant outage in one could push the market into deficit.
The oil market’s immediate reaction to the White House's announcement to not reissue Iranian oil waivers underlines the fact that oil prices and world politics are inextricably linked
The attack on Libya’s capital by a militia called the Libyan National Army threatens to cut off, or at least disrupt, the nation’s oil supply.
Compensating for supply shortfalls from Venezuela, Libya, and Iran may prove a challenging task for OPEC in the months to come.
This summer everything changed again in Libya. Oil has been taken hostage not by bandits or crooks but by a presidential hopeful who had liberated the ports two years ago.
There once was a time when OPEC did not need to rely on outside producers to achieve its policy goals. That time has passed. The old OPEC is dead, and OPEC+ now stands in its place. What will its reign bring?
A clumsy exit strategy, producers cheating on quotas, or a rapid response from U.S. shale producers could undermine the effectiveness of the deal. Conversely, the potential for higher prices is also a stark possibility.
An extension is virtually guaranteed but today’s overwhelming consensus masks real divisions, complications and misgivings.
When producers that are inherently prone to conflict and resource nationalism lose supply, output will most likely not return to previous levels.
Libyan Oi Minister Mustafa Sanalla has facilitated a five-fold increase in oil production over the last year from a low of 200 thousand barrels/day last summer to 1.1 million b/d in recent weeks, despite prevailing chaos and rival governments.