China hasn't included crude oil on a list of tarifed products, but that does not mean that the energy trade will emerge from the escalating trade war unscathed. Already, the trade spat has disrupted the flow of energy between the two countries.
Looming IMO regulations, as well as the perpetual precariousness of relying on petroleum for marine transportation in a volatile world market, have prompted shipping fleets to take a fresh look at renewable-powered propulsion.
Rising imports from China are helping to reduce the large surplus of supply, and LNG prices are rising again, marking an end to a several-year downturn in the market.
The severe decline in investment in new LNG export capacity due to the price downturn that began in 2014 could precipitate supply problems in the 2020s, mirroring similar trends in the crude oil market.
Texas-based Noble Energy and Israel’s Delek Group, the two companies producing gas in Israeli waters, will ship about 64 billion cubic meters of natural gas over the next decade to Egypt’s Dolphinus Holdings.
The glut of supply could last years, threatening to keep prices low until the 2020s, but the oil majors are playing the long game, expecting the demand for gas to grow substantially over time.
While U.S. LNG will play second fiddle to pipeline gas from Russia in the European market, the mere fact that Gazprom has granted pricing concessions is a sign that Europe's LNG imports are having a significant effect.
Risks for companies operating in Argentina have fallen considerably in recent years, but the political environment could throw a wrench in energy development at any time. The mid-term elections in October are the next big flashpoint.
If the GCC crisis lasts for months or even years, the appeal of more extreme measures could grow over time.
Faltering U.S. gas production in 2016 was an aberration, a side effect of both low prices and the collapse in the oil market, which cut the output of associated gas. In the next five years, U.S. gas production will make up 40% of global supply growth.