for Oil Demand Growth
Even though India’s vision of an all-electric future is bumping up against reality, the country is moving in the right direction to diversify its car fleet as population grows and the demand for oil rises faster than in any other market.
Jet fuel demand growth appears guaranteed in coming decades with increased aviation travel and limited substitutes in this area.
Although oil would surpass $200 per barrel under its high-price scenario, the EIA sees little effect in curbing demand growth.
When discussing the “success” surrounding OPEC’s cuts, it’s important to remember where the market was at the beginning of 2016, when prices fell below $30. Now, prices are in the mid-$50s, reflecting the impact of OPEC's actions.
While India is making a concerted effort to implement reform in its transportation sector, it is far behind other countries in putting EVs on the road. Despite the government's best intentions, India's oil demand should double by 2040.
A combination of high demand growth and declining production in China puts extra emphasis on projects like the Myanmar pipeline as the country looks to improve energy security.
Despite EV sales growing at a rapid clip in China, oil demand there is still expected to rise by more than 60 percent in the next couple of decades.
Critics of the EIA's long-term projections can cherry-pick through the different scenarios to justify almost any outlook that suits their bias.
A major consultancy says that the oil market will still take longer to rebalance than many analysts had reckoned because of supply-side trends both in OPEC and outside the group. A slew of new non-OPEC fields will ramp up to increase the global crude oversupply to a massive 1.8 mbd for 1H 2017.
An extended period of upstream investment cuts and the fact that petroleum products still fuel more than 90 percent of the transportation sector could mean we’re headed for another price spike. But slower economic growth and structural shifts on the demand side could keep another bull market from occurring.