for Oil sands
The cancellation of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline would significantly hurt Alberta's oil sands producers, which are struggling with midstream constraints and large discounts for their crude.
Upstream investment in new projects in Canada’s oil sands has declined by two-thirds since the oil market downturn in 2014, and there is no guarantee spending will rebound.
With existing production facing a stiff market, new oil sands projects might remain too risky for most companies. Suncor Energy’s strategy of handing over much of its cash flow to investors is a sign that oil sands face a rocky future.
While growth in shale has garnered a lot of attention, overlooked is the fact that Canada and Brazil are expected to add a combined 2 mbd over the next five years.
Approval from the federal government of two major pipelines, rising oil prices, and a the potential shift on Keystone XL mean that after two years of contraction, optimism has finally returned to Canada's oil patch.
Although the carbon tax proposed by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will likely cause more stress for the country's oil industry, it may lead to approval for much-need oil pipelines.
As Canadian wildfires have failed to cause lasting damage to tar sands extraction facilities, oil markets remain calm despite the size of the disruption.
The outlook appears bleak for Canada’s oil industry, with prices for some crude grades in the country trading for just $15 per barrel. The outlook is so bad that some companies are shutting in production.
Despite the bleak picture for producers, oil sands output in Alberta is still expected to grow by .8 mbd between now and 2020.