OPEC has few choices at its disposal to manage the swelling oil market surplus, most of which are unpalatable.
Past experience can offer some guidance, but by every indication the global oil industry is heading into a new age, with unpredictable consequences.
Weaker demand has allowed traders to shrug off recent events in the Persian Gulf. But a belief that a return to the days of the tanker war is unlikely may be misplaced.
The top forecasters for the oil market have repeatedly downgraded their estimates for demand. Absent a turnaround in global growth, the pitfalls for the oil market may only grow worse.
OPEC's collusive actions run counter to established international anti-competitive norms at American expense. But by amending the Sherman Act, NOPEC offers a tool to combat these activities.
While the result from Vienna is ostensibly a success, there are obvious cracks in OPEC’s cohesion, as well as in its strategy to tighten up the market.
Against the backdrop of rising tension in the Persian Gulf, OPEC+ will meet to decide next steps
U.S. Sets Record for Oil Production Growth in 2018; U.S. Expected to Drive Global Supply Growth Through 2024
Both BP and the IEA expect U.S. production to drive global supply growth in the coming years, but uncertainty about shale's production trajectory was marked out as a potential concern.
Russian discontent over Saudi intentions to reduce production is a likely potential flashpoint for the upcoming meeting—but internal OPEC politics, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mean this summit is rife with tension that threatens to upset proceedings.
The members of the OPEC+ coalition have different economic incentives. Most member countries are producing as much as they can and have little scope for higher output, so they are on board with an extension of production cuts.