For the first time since the price collapse, international drilling is finally picking up at a time when the blistering growth of U.S. shale is set to take a breather because of pipeline constraints.
The latest on oil prices: The forces that helped drive WTI and Brent apart have suddenly reversed course.
As "Peak Demand" has faded from the industry dialogue, international oil companies examine how to meet growing global energy demand while keeping prices low.
With the Permian possibly falling short of expectations, the U.S. shale boom may not be the panacea to keep prices relatively low at a time OPEC is restraining supply and geopolitical risks threaten more supply disruptions.
In today's global oil market, price movements, in either direction, are largely dependent on OPEC's actions and verbal intervention. Current political and market dynamics make it clear that shale was never a panacea.
American consumers plan to change their driving habits throughout the summer due to increased gasoline prices.
Oil prices are currently underpinned by unplanned supply outages, OPEC manipulation, geopolitical uncertainty, limited spare capacity, rising demand, and speculative buying.
OPEC officials warn that underinvestment may lead to a price spike, but major oil producers do not have a strategy to meet longer-term demand growth.
Circumstances in the oil markets are expected to change, perhaps dramatically, early next decade. While U.S. production is expected to grow by a massive 2.5 Mbd in 2018-19, increases will thereafter slow considerably.
The divergence in shale forecasts stems from differences over macroeconomic assumptions, price expectations, the supply chain outlook, and productivity projections.