for Transportation Fuel Demand
The Saudis continue shifting its goals for where oil prices should be. The Kingdom is now signaling that it wants to increase prices to $80-$100 per barrel in order to enhance the valuation for its planned initial public offering.
Transportation revolutions occur every 50 years. Could the world now be experiencing the beginning of a new paradigm with ride-sharing, autonomous vehicles, electric vehicles, and similar emerging technologies?
If future population growth occurs in suburbs of lower-density and higher income, then vehicle ownership will likely rise, whereas if future population growth gathers in higher-density, lower-income cities, vehicle ownership may decline.
The largest proportion of commuting in U.S. metropolitan areas occurs from suburb-to-suburb, standing at 40 percent of metropolitan commuters as of 2015.
Petchem growth appears guaranteed for the coming decades with demand rising faster than GDP in non-OECD countries and limited substitutes in this area.
December 2016 EV sales surpassed the previous monthly record set in September by an enormous 44 percent.
Critics of the EIA's long-term projections can cherry-pick through the different scenarios to justify almost any outlook that suits their bias.
Fuel efficiency standards and the long-term saturation of VMT are key factors that could have a major impact on reducing foreign petroleum dependence in the transportation sector.
Although shifts are taking place with EVs, autonomy, and more stringent fuel economy, it is not inevitable that we’ll shortly be in a post-oil world and that demand will peak sooner rather than later.
IEA appears to be taking fuel economy standards at face value, and not recognizing the impact of cheap gasoline on consumer behavior.