When producers that are inherently prone to conflict and resource nationalism lose supply, output will most likely not return to previous levels.
The world still needs massive investment—all along the supply chain—to keep future price spikes from occurring and for countries to improve their energy security. But many in the industry have become more restrained in making big investments.
Despite constant chatter of rebalancing, oil prices have been weakening, and OPEC has itself to blame for causing market uncertainty and instability.
Where it once saw risks, IEA's latest report takes a perspective of calm complacency about an extended period of low oil prices.
The Iran nuclear deal has sweeping implications for oil markets, reigniting tensions within OPEC, contributing to global oversupply, and potentially encouraging Iran's regional rivals to pursue nuclear weapons of their own.