Between Iran, Libya and Venezuela, the seeds of a major disruption to the oil market have already been sown. A significant outage in one could push the market into deficit.
On April 29 the national average gasoline price reached a new 2019 high of $2.97 per gallon—already matching last year's high—with a variety of factors expected to push prices even higher.
The oil market’s immediate reaction to the White House's announcement to not reissue Iranian oil waivers underlines the fact that oil prices and world politics are inextricably linked
With the expiration of the waivers now just a little more than two weeks away, the oil market is on edge as the White House weighs its next steps.
President Trump's latest OPEC tweet has heightened speculation that volatility is returning to the global oil market. But the truth is oil volatility never went away.
The U.S. government's goal to knock Iran oil exports down to zero may be boxed in by its own policy towards Venezuela.
While there is a long list of potential factors that could surprise the market in 2019, OPEC+ supply curbs create a tightening baseline that should lead to higher oil prices as the year wears on.
Backed by a host of Latin American countries and the United States, Juan Guaido's declaration of himself as the legitimate president of Venezuela represents the sternest test Maduro has faced to his hold on power—and the oil market has already felt the effects.
Compensating for supply shortfalls from Venezuela, Libya, and Iran may prove a challenging task for OPEC in the months to come.
There once was a time when OPEC did not need to rely on outside producers to achieve its policy goals. That time has passed. The old OPEC is dead, and OPEC+ now stands in its place. What will its reign bring?