President Trump's latest OPEC tweet has heightened speculation that volatility is returning to the global oil market. But the truth is oil volatility never went away.
The U.S. government's goal to knock Iran oil exports down to zero may be boxed in by its own policy towards Venezuela.
While there is a long list of potential factors that could surprise the market in 2019, OPEC+ supply curbs create a tightening baseline that should lead to higher oil prices as the year wears on.
Backed by a host of Latin American countries and the United States, Juan Guaido's declaration of himself as the legitimate president of Venezuela represents the sternest test Maduro has faced to his hold on power—and the oil market has already felt the effects.
Compensating for supply shortfalls from Venezuela, Libya, and Iran may prove a challenging task for OPEC in the months to come.
There once was a time when OPEC did not need to rely on outside producers to achieve its policy goals. That time has passed. The old OPEC is dead, and OPEC+ now stands in its place. What will its reign bring?
Given the group’s discord, it’s unclear if OPEC+ will sufficiently handle the current complex market situation, which is experiencing a number of fast-moving events, such as lost supply in Venezuela, Libya, and other producer nations.
Populist candidates in Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico have campaigned on dramatic new reforms for state-run oil industries and are now gaining momentum in polls.
Oil prices are currently underpinned by unplanned supply outages, OPEC manipulation, geopolitical uncertainty, limited spare capacity, rising demand, and speculative buying.
The crisis in Venezuela's energy sector is accelerating as creditors are laying claim to the few remaining productive energy assets in the country.