for Wood Mackenzie
The combination of higher interest rates and rising drilling costs could stifle the rebound in shale production. While the oil majors will likely take higher interest rates in stride, more expensive credit would threaten the financial health of small E&Ps.
The group has been adamant about putting together a united front to show that it will follow through with production cuts and counter critics who doubt its willingness or capability to do so.
After two years of seeing spending contract, the oil industry is poised to boost capex in 2017, but some warn that may not be enough to keep a shortfall from occurring in the future.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie says EVs could slice gasoline demand by as much as 20 percent by 2035. Highly optimistic forecasts of EV market penetration have drawn scrutiny in the past, so it’s worth considering, what, if anything, has changed to put Woodmac’s projections closer to reality.
Lost in the talk about the decrease in upstream spending is how Middle East producers, most notably Saudi Arabia, have not cut back in investment, setting the stage for them to see sharp gains in market share when tighter fundamentals are realized.
With prices having rallied and with expectations for a stronger market next year, will drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) be able to stabilize U.S. shale output or bring about another wave of supply online?
Oil prices all along the curve have taken major hits. The futures curve may be underestimating risks from both geopolitics and deferred investment, or the rapid descent of the curve could in fact indicate the market is in for longer-term structural weakness.
Despite a tumultuous history for foreign investors, Argentina is home to the only commercial shale production outside of North America, with output expected to double by 2018.