With a barrel of Canadian oil now cheaper than a pint of beer, producers have begun to shut in production.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's election victory could create more challenges for an energy industry already struggling with low prices and pipeline bottlenecks.
Persistent pipeline construction delays continue to hamper the ability of Canada's oil industry to move oil to market.
Already struggling with a lack of pipeline capacity, Canada’s oil industry hit yet another setback with the recent announcement from Enbridge of delays to its Line 3 replacement project.
While there is a long list of potential factors that could surprise the market in 2019, OPEC+ supply curbs create a tightening baseline that should lead to higher oil prices as the year wears on.
Intractable infrastructure problems caused Canada to miss out on the high prices that characterized much of 2018. A majority of Canadians now believe the lack of pipeline capacity has become a crisis as current supply lines are tapped out, storage facilities are at capacity and Alberta has instituted a production cut.
The USMCA appears to calm oil industry fears that revisions to NAFTA would endanger investor protections, while Canada and Mexico both have carveouts to avoid vehicle tariffs.
The cancellation of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline would significantly hurt Alberta's oil sands producers, which are struggling with midstream constraints and large discounts for their crude.
Upstream investment in new projects in Canada’s oil sands has declined by two-thirds since the oil market downturn in 2014, and there is no guarantee spending will rebound.
Canada's oil market is dealing with transportation constraints while heavy crude producers such as Colombia and Venezuela are seeing output declines and OPEC producers are cutting production.